Monday, October 18, 2010

Ehrlich Heads into PG County

As the Washington Post recently reported, Team Ehrlich seems to have taken a renewed interest in Prince George's County as far as its campaign strategy is concerned.

So, what's going on here?

Does Ehrlich really think he can improve his vote tally in the most Democratic county in the state? Or, is the purpose of this visit to create enough good will and/or indifference among African American voters so that those who will never vote for a Republican may still choose not to vote at all because they see Ehrlich as non-threatening and O'Malley as uninspiring?

And, how does Julius Henson factor into all of this?

While I believe the GOP should engage in outreach activities towards traditional Democratic constituencies, this is a process that has to extend across multiple election cycles. I am not sure that showing up in black communities in late October will move the needle very far.

If I were advising Ehrlich, I'd tell him to spend as much time as possible in Howard, Frederick, and Carroll counties - all areas he needs to win big, and in which Brian Murphy racked up respectable numbers during the primary.

The "Where Else Are They Going To Go" approach towards courting the GOP base partially doomed Ehrlich's 2006 reelection bid. Simply taking it on faith that GOP and conservative independent voters will vote in droves because, well, it's a GOP year and Martin O'Malley is "that bad" won't work this time either.


  1. GOnzalez poll is out, O'Malley 47, Ehrlich 42. THe oversampled GOP voters, undersampled dems. Bad news for Ehrlich, no excuses he can make. RGA, Sun reports, has pulled its money out of DC. Ehlrich is imploding.

  2. Wow! How did this close race become such a blowout? How has Bob not gained one point in the polls since he got into the race? I read this poll, Gonzales went out of his way to paint a favorable turnout scenario for Governor Ehrlich and the race still isnt close.

    I saw the RGA article, it appears Barbour has made the call that his dollars are better spent elsewhere. No Ehrlich ads on radio, fewer on tv. At gym this morning I saw back to back to back O'Malley ads, one not from Ehrlich's camp. Looks like its time to roll out the FOP endorsement Ehrlich has been sitting on!

  3. and now O'Malley has blanketed Baltimore with signs.Well Bob still has all his facebook friends.