Monday, October 18, 2010

A New Gonzales Poll Hits This Week

I have heard from several well-connected sources – not to mention an anonymous commenter on this blog – that a new Gonzales poll of the governor's race was in the field last week and will be released sometime this week.

Conducted in July, the last Gonzales poll had the race at 45 percent O’Malley, 42 percent Ehrlich with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent.

Will this poll validate the results of other polls showing O’Malley pulling ahead, or has Ehrlich picked up ground in the wake of his impressive performance at the Washington Post debate? Stay tuned.

7 comments:

  1. I had heard rumors of an upcoming poll showing the race statistically tied. I didn't put much stock in the rumors, but perhaps they were referring to Gonzales.

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  2. I'm hearing reports that Team Ehrlich is telling people that the poll will show the race still a dead heat, or even that Ehrlich is up a point. No one I have spoken to who had knowledge the poll is coming had any details as to what it shows.

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  3. Well, if nothing else, that would certainly make things a little more interesting for the next two weeks. What are your thoughts on Gonzales in general?

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  4. Well, a friend of mine used to be Gonzales's partner. So, knowing her and her professional integrity, I think highly of the company's ability to provide accurate snapshots of the race.

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  5. Gonzalez tilts R. If Ehrlich is behind in this new poll, he's done.

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  6. Who paid for this poll?

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  7. RJC, your info was correct. The poll is out, and the news is interesting. Gonzalez predicts record high turnout for GOP, record low for Dems and use this as his model. Also predicts AA voters down 25 percent over 08. Blair Lee and Ehrlich camp could not have written a better methodology.

    However, the results, in the best case voter turnout scenario have to make the Ehrlich camp cringe-O'Malley 47-Ehrlich 42. 3 percent vote for third party, rest undecided. This may be the worst poll for Ehrlich bc there are no excuses to be made.

    These results are another hit to the Ehrlichs. Additionally, hearing the RGA has pulled its purchase from DC tv, because as Haley Barbour said, the RGA doesn't invest in sure losers. Ehrlich has been buying time on a one to two day basis, which indicates their funds are dried up. This means they are paying as they go, a tough way to run a race. Fat lady may not have sung, but she sure enough is warming up her vocals.

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