Tuesday, October 5, 2010

Rasmussen: 49 Percent O'Malley, 41 Percent Ehrlich

Last week, Team Ehrlich and many observers of Maryland politics were attacking the believability of a Washington Post poll which attributed an 11-point lead to Martin O'Malley in the Maryland governor's race. Bob Ehrlich himself criticized the poll as being "out of whack" with reality.

Well, a week later, there's still wackiness in the air.

The latest Rasmussen poll gives O'Malley an eight-point lead (49 percent to 41 percent) over Ehrlich. The previous Rasmussen poll taken in late September had O'Malley's lead at just three points (50 percent to 47 percent). If the undecideds break in challenger Ehrlich's favor, the latest Rasmussen poll extrapolates into a 51 percent to 47 percent O'Malley victory.

The Rasmussen poll is interesting in that it shows both candidates losing support (-6 for Ehrlich versus -1 for O'Malley). Nonetheless, together the Rasmussen and Post polls offer compelling evidence that O'Malley has gained the clear advantage in the race.

O'Malley's cash warchest, along with the quality and frequency of his TV advertising, is clearly behind his growing lead. Further, Ehrlich's inability to offer voters a clear and compelling message on job growth and economic issues undermines his ability to sell the case for change.

I'm curious to see how Team Ehrlich rebuts the most recent Rasmussen poll. This will be tricky in that, in attacking the Post poll, they cited the September Rasmussen poll as a more accurate snapshot. The one consolation (if you can call it that) is that some Ehrlich supporters have joined the ranks of the undecided rather than switched allegiances to O'Malley. If he was winning them before, perhaps a change in strategy and messaging may help Ehrlich win them back.

For the record, I have been predicting a 51 percent to 48 percent O'Malley victory for the better part of a year. I'm sticking with my prediction.

1 comment:

  1. Blair Lee was on WBAL today with more "analysis" of why the Post poll was wrong. When I first read the poll I thought it was off, however it was the same paper that endorsed Ehrlich and had him at 1 in July. However, Blair, who is a mouth piece of the Ehrlich camp, performing onAir Ehrlich today mad me think, they doth protest too much. Then I see the Rasmussan poll and I understand why. Their internal polls must be showing the same thing, their money must be drying up and they need to reassure their base that this race is far from over.

    Fact is there are 28 days and that can be a lifetime in politics, however the Ehrlich team spent over a week whining about a poll and trying to paint it as out of touch. Then the republican pollster drops this bomb on them. will they spend another week? They wasted the last while O'malley continued to bomb away on their shelter in Mont Co and Bmore airwaves.

    Team Ehrlich is taking on a lot of water, I suspect with the arrival of Obama in PG Thursday and continued air attacks, Ehrlich is furious. O'Malley will finish this race strong and wait for the decision, he will lit drop, door knock, phone bank, mail and do campaign ads. Ehrlich will need to make a choice of what he can afford, a difficult pickle to be stuck in at this point in hte race.

    For the Record, O'Malley 53, Ehrlich 46, 1 to others.