For much of the past year, I have stuck with a 51 percent O'Malley, 48 percent Ehrlich scenario as my prediction for the outcome of the governor's race.
But recent polling indicates that O'Malley will win by an even bigger spread. So, I have decided to revise my prediction.
I think O'Malley could win by a margin as big as 10 points. But given the nature of the year, I am going to assume strong GOP turnout on election day will pare his numbers back a little bit. So, I am going with a 54 percent O'Malley, 45 percent Ehrlich model. In other words, O'Malley improves over his 2006 performance, and Ehrlich underperforms, but not by much. Also, I think black voters will comprise 21 percent of the electorate - a drop off from 2008 and 2006, but enough to ensure O'Malley wins by a comfortable margin.
So what are your predictions?