Friday, October 29, 2010

Revised Prediction for the MD Governor's Race

For much of the past year, I have stuck with a 51 percent O'Malley, 48 percent Ehrlich scenario as my prediction for the outcome of the governor's race.

But recent polling indicates that O'Malley will win by an even bigger spread. So, I have decided to revise my prediction.

I think O'Malley could win by a margin as big as 10 points. But given the nature of the year, I am going to assume strong GOP turnout on election day will pare his numbers back a little bit. So, I am going with a 54 percent O'Malley, 45 percent Ehrlich model. In other words, O'Malley improves over his 2006 performance, and Ehrlich underperforms, but not by much. Also, I think black voters will comprise 21 percent of the electorate - a drop off from 2008 and 2006, but enough to ensure O'Malley wins by a comfortable margin.

So what are your predictions?

7 comments:

  1. Not according to Mrs. Ehrlich who is telling BAL listeners Bob is within the margin of error in their internal polls.

    Where did they take that poll, Ehrlich campaign headquarters?

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  2. Ehrlich IS the margin of error... Brian Murphy was right, Ehrlich couldn't win, and shouldn't have run. Now, he can't spend the rest of his life blaming GWB for his only defeat...

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  3. How impressive a feat would it be if Ehrlich were to lose worse than he did it 2006? Given the politcal climate that would be like managing to drown in the middle of a desert.

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  4. I think 8-10 points is about right. The more interesting question is what effect having a dead weight at the top of the ticket has on down ballot races.

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  5. It really is sad. Ehrlich once again places himself and his personal ambition above the party in Maryland.

    Would Murphy have beaten O'Malley? Probably not, but the beat down wouldn't have been much worse. But if Murphy had run, he would have built a base for four years from now when the Governor's seat would have been open.

    Instead, someone will have to start from scratch four years from now against Brown or Gansler or Franchot or Smith or whoever else the Dems run.

    Thanks Bob.

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  6. I think that the Tea Party will actually drive Ehrlich's numbers up a bit in the end for a 6 point defeat.

    The early voting turnout in the 1st, relative to the rest of the state, is very informative. These folks are coming out because of the congressional race, not gubernatorial. Also, it remains to be seen how close Kratovil and Harris will be. It is certainly much closer than most would have thought 2 months ago.

    The rest of the state is seeing a very good GOTV effort by the Dems. Couple that with the huge absentee push by Dems and you have a relative lack of GOP enthusiasm. Also, independent voters are just not going out overwhelmingly for Ehrlich.

    Unfortuantely, Ehrlich's public career is likely to be over this year.

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  7. Anon 14:03- don't forget about Ken Ulmann (Howard County exec). He and Gansler will duke it out in 2014, with Gansler probably prevailing. Jim Smith discredited himself with his ridiculous ad that even HE likely didn't believe as he was reading the script, but I'm sure he still winds up getting a cabinet position in O'Malley's second term, which is a good segway into the original question...

    RJC3- I'm still predicting a 3 point loss (51-48). I know you all will think I'm nuts, but I really am skeptical of the polling, and I don't think people are dumb enough to fall for the "Obama: We Got Your Back" signs that are intended to confuse afr-americans into thinking the President is up for reelection. I also think afr-american turnout will be in the 18%-19% range, not 21%. However, the one thing that keeps sticking in my head is the line in the Gonzales poll that said that the O'M campaign was successful in labeling Ehrlich as the incumbent. He's right.

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