The Sun's Annie Linskey and Julie Bykowicz just filed a report on the Baltimore Sun poll to be released tomorrow.
Conducted by Opinion Works, the poll has O'Malley leading Ehrlich by 14 points (52 percent to 38 percent). Factoring in undecideds, that roughly translates into a 54 - 44 percent O'Malley win. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percent.
The new poll has O'Malley winning independents handily, leading 88-4 percent among African Americans, and winning women by 55 percent to 34 percent. Further, it has Ehrlich's favorables/unfavorables tied at 43 percent, and has him winning just 75 percent of the GOP vote. It's worth remembering that Ehrlich got 93 percent of GOP primary votes in 2002, but only 76 percent in his primary win against Brian Murphy in September.
The poll also makes what seems to be realistic assumptions about turnout. It assumed black voters will comprise 19 percent of the electorate (down from 25 percent in 2008), and that GOP voters will be 30 percent of the electorate (up from 27 percent four years ago).
Is Ehrlich toast? Given the dynamics at work this year, I am not prepared to say that. But given the results of this poll and what I am hearing in terms of early voting turnout, things sure ain't looking good. I may have to revise my earlier prediction.
Mr. Schurick and Mr. Marczyk...call your office.