Sunday, October 24, 2010

Team Ehrlich Responds to Sun Poll

This is from an email sent out by the campaign this morning about the "flawed" Sun poll...

"This morning The Baltimore Sun published a poll that directly conflicts with all the trend lines in this campaign.  We cannot let a flawed poll deter Marylanders from voting for strong leadership on November 2nd,  Consider this:  A month ago, a Washington Post poll showed Bob Ehrlich down by 11 points. Two weeks ago, a Rasmussen poll showed Bob Ehrlich narrowing Martin O'Malley's lead to 8 points. Just five days ago, a Gonzales poll showed Bob Ehrlich closing the gap yet again to just five points.  After six months of dishonest attack ads from Martin O'Malley, Bob Ehrlich has consistently closed the gap with a concrete plan to get Maryland working again.  Bob takes clear momentum in to the final days of this campaign."

I have two reactions.

First, you can't really take polls with disparate methodologies and use them to glean evidence of "trend lines." The only observable trend is that O'Malley seems to be consistently leading.

Second, if things were trending in Ehrlich's direction, their internal polling would have shown it, and they would have released it to Blair Lee or some other friendly media source.


  1. Let's see what the next rasmussen poll says.

  2. A new Washington Post poll has the race at 14 as well.

  3. Listen, I'm an Ehrlich supporter and clearly the polls are not going his way. But looking at the Post poll, they have him getting 92 percent of Republicans and leading among Independents by 16 points. If that happens on election day, how likely is it that he could still lose by anywhere close to 14 points?

    Not saying Ehrlich isn't down, because he clearly is, but the methodology is strange to me.