Tuesday, October 26, 2010

A Three Point Race?

So, late this afternoon, Henry Fawell, Team Ehrlich's Communications Director, released the following statement:

"Contrary to what The Baltimore Sun and Washington Post want you to believe, this race is extremely close.  A survey commissioned by the Ehrlich campaign shows that as of yesterday, the campaign for governor was statistically tied among those most likely to vote. That’s right: 47 percent of the most likely voters support O’Malley and 44 percent support Bob Ehrlich, with a margin of error of 4 percent."

Bob Ehrlich's pollster of record, Public Opinion Strategies, is a very reputable firm that has polled for Ehrlich ever since his first bid for Congress in 1994. So, assuming they did this particular poll, I wouldn't dismiss such results out of hand just because they do not align with the other three recent polls.

But, I am wondering...if Team Ehrlich really wants to rebut the Post, Sun, and Rasmussen polls (even though the Rasmussen survey is pointedly not mentioned in the statement above), it should produce the entire poll referenced in the statement and not just allude to it. That way, the poll's results and methodologies can be adequately compared against the two polls Team Ehrlich describes as "flawed."

Perhaps this has happened, and Blair Lee will discuss it in his column Friday (that's who I'd give it to were I them). We'll see.


  1. and the internals showed him winnig last time too.

  2. A curious release. The best poll they could gin up still has O'Malley ahead, and has him statistically within the magic 50%?

    And, as Bob is fond of saying, lets see the crosstabs.

    Finally, what better gift could Ehrlich give the O'Malley GOTV?

  3. O'Malley GOTV effort is unreal. Both the early voting returns and absentee ballot returns are showing Dems comrpising 66 percent of total turnout. That number is significantly above any poll's projection. the hope that low voter turnout would allow Ehrlich to find his way back is dwindling with each days voter results.

    What do Ehrlich internals show? He is fighting for his pride in Bmore County. from his very light public schedule it is clear that Ehrlich is losing motivation for a race that many tell me he didn't really want to run.

  4. Ehrlich is a coward. The burning question is whether Kendel will act on her delusional fantasy of being elected Senator or Governor.