Friday, October 29, 2010

What Does "74 Percent" Mean?

If you’re a voter in Baltimore County, then perhaps you have noticed those “74 Percent” signs going up everywhere. I first heard about the signs at a political dinner I attended Monday, where one of the wise men of county politics asked me about it, noting that the signs contained the authority line of GOP County Executive candidate Ken Holt. Despite having done some writing projects for Holt here and there, I had no idea what it meant.

To me, “74 Percent” could mean a number of things:

  • The percentage of Baltimore County residents who Kevin Kamenetz has personally insulted or patronized during his 16 years on the County Council;
  • The percentage of Joe Bartenfelder supporters who will be supporting Holt (though that numbers seems a little low);
  • Martin O’Malley’s probability of winning the election (again, a little low, as the New York Times had it at 89 percent the last time I checked);
  • Andy Harris’ unfavorability ratings;
  • The “margin of error” in Team Ehrlich’s most recent internal polling.
I finally had a chance to catch up with Holt personally about it today, and he directed me to this TV spot which began running last night.

In my view this is a pretty effective ad. The swirling numbers and messages are impactful, but what really makes it is the clip of Kamenetz smugly and impatiently lecturing his audience about the impossibility of tax relief in Baltimore County. What he is saying is less offensive than the arrogance he conveys when he says it.

I’m hearing this race is closer than anyone thought it would be, with a lot of voters still undecided. Could Bob Ehrlich lose the governor’s race statewide, but run well enough in Baltimore County to bring Holt and a lot of GOP candidates across the finish line with him?

Stay tuned.

1 comment:

  1. The 74% ad may very well be the best spot of 2010. Hopefully Holt will have enough money to run this enough. EXTREMELY EFFECTIVE!